# Suppose the returns on an asse

To calculate the probability of getting return on asset lessthan-4.5%, we are using NORM.DIST function in excel as follows:

NORM.DIST(-0.045,0.073,0.084,1), where, -0.045=number(x),0.073=mean, 0.084=std. deviation, 1 for cumulative normaldistribution). This gives us the result of 0.08004 in excel. Thatmeans there is 8.00 percent probability of getting return on assetless than-4.5%.

with 95% confidence, z -value for a normally populated data setis 1.96. But as here no sample size mention, we can take averagetrading days of 252 days in NASDAQ as sample size here.

So, with 95% confidence, for this population mean CI will be(0.073-1.96*(0.084/(252^0.5))), (0.073+1.96*(0.084/(252^0.5))).that is (0.0626, 0.0834) . So, for 95% of the time, return will bein the 6.26% to 8.34%

with 99% confidence, z -value for a normally populated data setis 2.58

So, with 99% confidence, for this population mean CI will be(0.073-2.58*(0.084/(252^0.5))), (0.073+2.58*(0.084/(252^0.5))).that is (0.0593,0.0867) . So, for 99% of the time, return will bein the 5.93% to 8.67%

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